In the early hours of May 24, the Ethereum ETF reached a milestone in the US, when the Securities and Exchange Commission passed the issuer's 19b-4 document. As a result, the discussion about the possibility of other tokens introducing ETFs also became popular. What are the challenges encountered in approving ETFs for other tokens? If this is possible, then what tokens can be introduced earlier? SOL, PEPE, or DOGE?

From the point of view of industry experts, the consensus of tokens and whether they are defined as securities are two hard thresholds. Currently, if the regulatory framework in the US is not changed significantly, the next ETF may not emerge in two or three years.

Sol is highly vocal, but less likely.
On May 23, BKCM CEO Brian Kelly (Brian Kelly) predicted on CNBC's "Fast Money" that Solana (SOL) could be the next cryptocurrency in the United States to launch a spot exchange trading fund (ETF). But the bold prediction was immediately met with some opposition from industry experts, who pointed out several major regulatory and market challenges.

First, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has classified Solana as a securities, which is mentioned in lawsuits against major exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken. Therefore, this makes the path to Solana approval even more complicated. In addition, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, with BTC and ETH, there are futures ETFs, and Solana does not have this key market base.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Cyefat (James Seyffart) said that before any spot ETF launches, Solana needs futures products listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) or a strong cryptocurrency regulatory framework developed by the US Congress.

Currently, Bitcoin and Ether are the only two cryptocurrencies that have received an approved futures ETF in the United States. Major ETF publishers also have little interest in launching ETFs outside of these two digital assets. BlackRock (BlackRock), a prominent ETF publisher, said it has no plans to launch ETFs for other alternative currencies, including Solana.

Although assets under management of trillions of dollars of Franklin Templeton (Franklin Templeton) recently praised Solana and founder of anatoly, liberal arts (Anatoly Yakovenko), triggered the speculation about whether the company will consider in the future application for spot Solana ETF, but at present few ETF issuers said intention to apply for spot Solana ETF.

Nate Gerlach (Nate Geraci), president of ETF Store, agrees with Sefat that there may be no spot Solana ETF without futures markets and clearer rules. He said Congress needs to develop a legal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies before there has any opportunity for approval.

Cinneamhain Ventures Partners Adam Cochran (Adam Cochran) believes that litecoin (LTC) or Dogecoin (DOGE) could be the next cryptocurrency to be approved by ETFs because of the simple regulatory situation. Both Litecoin and Dogecoin adopt a Bitcoin-like proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism, which could make their regulatory path less controversial.

On May 23, Grayscale launched two new investment trusts, Grayscale Near Trust (NEAR) and Grayscale Stacks Trust (STX). Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, the chief product and research director, said they are committed to launching new products that will give investors access to emerging and evolving parts of the crypto ecosystem. There is a view that the movement of gray scale and other institutions may also be a clue to the next ETF, but the current situation is not clear.

Consensus and whether to define a securities is a hard threshold.What will be brought on May 23 with the Ethereum Spot ETF, jointly hosted by PANews and OKX? In 》Twitter Space, the present guests also discussed this issue. Orange @0xVeryBigOrange, the owner of zero dry goods shop, must first analyze from the top 10 or even the top 5 market value, is beyond Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL I think it is almost impossible, because there are a lot of disputes in the settlement, BNB is impossible, I think the DOGE may be a little higher.

"I've been watching DOGE recently, but I still think the chances of other ETFs are very low, and there's a qualitative leap forward. Other words you can be used as an exclusion method, and the market value is not to consider.」 Big Orange added.

Etheric fang ecological developers 0 xAA @ 0 xAA _ Science and big orange hold the same view, " after etheric fang, I also feel by market value, hope to give meme some opportunities, because the fair launch process may be the most like securities, but I don't think the United States can accept is the public to invest in the meme, so take your time.」dForce Founder Mindao @mindaoyang said that several indicators mentioned before, one is the concentration of chips, from this point of view, it is indeed in the top 20. I think it also has something to do with stickiness. For example, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been existing in the market for more than 10 years, and the chips have been very dispersed. Solana has only been four or five years old. In addition, there is the concentration of the foundation, including the proportion of 10% of FTX before, and the relevant people together may not be less than 20%, so Solana is basically impossible.

There is another leading indicator for the passage of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which must be traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in the United States. because ETF itself refers to the price, so in fact, there are no other targets traded above except Ethereum and BTC. I think, the window period may be at least two or three years, there will be no third out, if there is a third, I think dog currency may meet this requirement, but the market value of dog currency is too low, I think more than 20 billion dollars to do an ETF seems to feel quite chicken.

Now Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have a very strong advantage, because the first two narratives are completely different, and the narrative of Ethereum and Solana is highly overlapping. So there is Ethereum, why the Solana, why the others. There may not be too much such narrative differentiation, so at least I think in the next two or three years may only BTC, ETH as an investable ETF, the rest is not invisible.

Data analyst Phyrex @Phyrex_Ni thinks that is possible in years. Second, I will focus on DOGE. We still need to look at the conditions of SEC approval of spot ETF. The first one is that it must be non-securities. Let's first say that DOGE is non-securities, which may be met.

The second point to have enough consensus, the so-called consensus degree refers to the value of the capital, another point is that we see refused ETF, there are a lot of content, including a market manipulation, actually DOGE is very obvious market manipulation, you can see, whenever elon musk send any related with DOGE, he will have the market reaction, DOGE inside it rise this range may be larger, so from this aspect, it belongs to the high market concentration, high market manipulation.

So in this respect, no matter who has the SEC chairman, whether FIT21 has not passed, DOGE itself is very likely to pass the spot ETF, which is very low, which is also a reason for its market value.

The second word we can look at the market value, no matter you are DOGE or who, the gap is actually very large.Solana Everyone knows that Solana is impossible.Solana Even if its consensus has been reached, it is the biggest problem is SEC, SEC is to face, especially now SEC, has in Coinbase lawsuit, we have said the Solana as the key securities object, so the lawsuit with Solana will fight, just the question of when.

Even if Gary Gensler (SEC chairman) is replaced this time, it will file a lawsuit over the relationship between Solana and Coinbase, and BNB is unlikely. Ripple itself is possible, XRP is actually possible, but Ripple actually no one won any SEC lawsuit, Ripple did not win at all, Ripple just from losing 100 points to losing 80 points.

We see that the overall cryptocurrency, satisfied is securities, then may not be enough consensus, meet his consensus, may not be enough securities. So first of all, if we look at the SEC, it is clear that it is not securities, or we see that in addition to BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC, DOGEE, and STX, there is no other clear saying that this is not a securities.
In addition, as teacher Mindao said, you must go to CME (cheese business institute) first, but you don't even see this layer, so it may be more difficult.

So next, even if there will be a new ETF behind, then only after the FIT21 passes, can you see if you change the definition of the entire cryptocurrency industry. If you can change this one, then there may be a new, then who will be new, then we can say. If the conclusion of this article has not changed, then it is likely to target the year, or even all the existing token are not enough to meet the conditions.