In a recent interview with podcast show Alpha First, Arthur Hayes shared his bold predictions about the future of the cryptocurrency market. He believes that with the Trump administration, easy monetary policy will trigger the depreciation of the dollar, which in turn will drive up the prices of bitcoin and other crypto assets. He also discussed global inflation, monetary policy in sovereign countries, and how to benefit other crypto assets such as Bitcoin and memin (Memecoin). He stressed that investors need to be vigilant in the bull market and avoid ignoring market risk through greed. In addition, he looked at future market trends and predicted that bitcoin could reach the $25 0,000 milestone by 2025.

Please note: the views of the guests do not represent the views of Wu, Wu said that he does not endorse any products and tokens, please strictly abide by the local laws and regulations.

Listen to the full podcast (YouTube):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xONEXGRcBMU

Mr Trump's economic policies will weaken the dollar and benefit bitcoin
Dreamer: Just a few weeks after the election, there are many changes in market prices. What can we expect for the next 12 months? What vision do you have to share with us? What's there to watch in the overall landscape of cryptocurrency forecasts?

Arthur: In my opinion, the market forecast is right. They expect Mr.Trump and his new cabinet members to print large amounts of money in the United States. One of their campaign platforms is to attract manufacturing and industrial companies back to the United States through a weak dollar policy. Then, they will inject a lot of money through bank credit to increase the amount of credit in the US economy to boost production and raise wages. All of this leads to inflation.

The ultimate losers are those who save dollars or hold Treasury bonds. And those assets with fixed supplies, such as Bitcoin, will perform very well. We've seen this trend by now, right?

So, I drew some data to compare the total amount of American bank credit with the performance of Bitcoin. For now, Bitcoin is clearly ahead of us. This shows that if Trump takes office, his plan is already clear that —— will weaken the dollar, stimulate the market with credit, get people back to work, and restore American production capacity. I think he'll follow this plan.

Will bitcoin reach $1 million?
Scott: There's a subsequent question about Trump. You once made a bold prediction that if Trump took office, bitcoin would reach $1 million. Do you still think all this will happen as expected? Do you still have any confidence?

Arthur: I'm confident, but I'm not sure if it will be implemented in a short time. In fact, this trend has begun since the time when President Trump was elected president in 2016. He pushed a trade war against China, followed by the Democrats and Biden administrations. So now, this confrontation has penetrated deep into the American political culture.

In the past, the United States has shifted most of its manufacturing and production capacity to China and Asia, which have gained a competitive advantage by weakening their currencies, thus affecting American workers. So the United States must bring these industries back home. To achieve this, it will take trillions of dollars of credit to be allocated to businesses that can be profitable at home.

Biden has passed the Chip Act (CHIPS Act), the Infrastructure Act and the Green New Deal, all of which require significant financial support. This trend will continue.

Global economic policy will drive inflation higher and benefit crypto assets
Dreamer: People in crypto space are usually the most disruptive group. There is much more to talk about around Trump. From a domestic point of view, your view is very reasonable, and it also makes many people feel optimistic. But if we look at the world, how will elections affect foreign policy, war and trade? For Asia, some policies may bring some fear. Will these policies have a negative impact on the economy or cryptocurrencies? Or don't we have to worry too much?

Arthur: I think, in essence, every country is now pursuing a "national first" policy. The United States proposed "America First", while China uses its "common prosperity" program to bring prosperity back to rural or low-income people. As a result, the Chinese government has suppressed the property bubble and is now restimulating the economy through monetary easing.

Japan is returning money, which will boost its economy, but also needs more credit to prevent banks from failing. Europe, on the other hand, is struggling by cutting off cheap energy from Russia and importing expensive energy from the United States. But they still need to support business, so there will be stimulus.

So every country is trying to take care of its own people, which means restoring local industry and increasing demand for goods. And this trend will drive up inflation around the world, further depressing the long-term outlook for bond yields.

In such an environment, cryptocurrencies will perform well. Although their policies seem to be different, they are actually pursuing the same goal, which is to give priority to meeting the needs of their own citizens. This requires an increase in internal credit distribution and an expansion of supply to support production and create jobs for people. This global trend is a big positive for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

Will bitcoin's rally drive to other crypto assets?
Dreamer: It looks like this is a great opportunity for cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. But what about the other cryptocurrencies? What do you think if this is affected by bitcoin's rally? Are you a bitcoin supremacist who thinks only Bitcoin has prospects and nothing else will follow? Or do you think there will be opportunities for other projects like Ethereum? For example, NFT, memes and DeFi, these trends have risen and fallen. Will this also benefit from the market rally? Or focus mainly on institutional investors and think only that bitcoin will attract money?

Arthur: I don't really pay much attention to institutional investors, because people always say they will enter the market, but anyway they have their own complex investment logic and credit considerations, and there are reasons to buy or not buy. From a retail investor's perspective, when the price of bitcoin rises, the most important asset for everyone is bitcoin. When my wealth in Bitcoin increases, I don't want to go back to fiat currency, because it makes no sense, right? I won't just invest in bitcoin. I want to invest in other crypto assets that have gained more than Bitcoin.

What else can be done? We'll focus on meme coins, the new Layer 1 blockchain, Layer 2 projects, NFT, games and so on. Bitcoin leads the market, and then the money gradually flows to other classes of assets. Because in the end, the goal is to earn more cryptocurrencies, not in exchange for fiat currencies. I believe that the fiat currency will eventually go back to zero.

Scott: Yes, I think everyone will try to make a quick profit, and even get a little addicted to this rapid growth. After all, this is one of the fastest-growing asset classes. If they profit from Bitcoin, many people will not turn back to fiat currencies, but instead to other crypto assets that still have potential. You also mentioned that the meme coins in this cycle surprised everyone, just as the NFT in the last cycle. I heard that you hold some meme coins. Is this part of the market interesting for you? How do meme coins perform in this cycle? They can easily rise to more than a billion dollars?

Arthur: It is really interesting. I like it. This phenomenon is interesting and interesting, such as the model coin squirrel, from zero to $2 billion, in just about nine days. Just because the U. S. government executed a squirrel, it became a $2 billion meme, traded worldwide. This phenomenon shows how we can respond to hotspots globally culturally and make it interesting through memes. Now, everyone knows about the squirrel being "executed" by the U. S. government or New York State. So there is a meme coin around it.

This is both interesting and reflects the reality. There may also be a subculture of some dissatisfaction with the government, such as their inflation policies. This phenomenon also makes meme coins a rapidly spreading market for attention.

The rapid rise of the meme coin demonstrates the resilience of the global culture
Dreamer: We also have some things like the "blue chip" meme coins, such as the meme coins related to current events that you just mentioned. I think these meme coins will have ups and downs, but we also have some meme coins that have stabilized, such as Dogecoin. Some people say it will rise to $1, do you think it is possible?

Arthur: I think it is possible. It's interesting, especially when it comes to the government efficiency department or the new "Elon," who confirms something that in itself becomes a classic meme. I hope I bought some because the memes are so good and fun. Elon is a very good meme creator, probably one of the best ever. Although I have some doubts about his business model, he is undoubtedly a genius in the meme art. So, the Dogecoin could indeed reach $1.

However, I think there is a sense of "falling from the altar" when people begin to realize the gap between government propaganda and actual results. One may revisit the meaning of these memes, and the information they convey. This transition can be very interesting.

Suggestions for new entrants: bull market rational and timely cash
Dreamer: There are a lot of technologies that make it easier to launch new Layer 1 blockchain projects or meme coins. I think we'll see more ideas pouring into the field, along with more professional trends coming in. In addition, as you mentioned, the election momentum is also very strong. If we look back, like the rise of the DeFi and NFT, and other trends that had been hyped, the excitement was similar. So, what lessons or warning stories are worth sharing? Especially for those who experience a bull market for the first time, what do you suggest that they pay attention to in the process? How to avoid repeating in this "beautiful and cruel world"?

Arthur: First of all, no one can profit from the market forever. You all know that you can make money quickly in a bull market, but the key is how to keep those gains. For example, the meme coins you are now holding may no longer exist in a month or two. Its market value could drop from $200 million to $5 million, with such a dramatic change. You can't predict these things.

Some statistics show that only about 0. 01% of the meme coin is worth more than $500 million, and most traders will end up losing money. Many people see huge profits on their books, but they always hold the "I can make more money" sentiment, which eventually leads to the loss of the wealth they already own.

So if you make some money that is a life change in your life, cash out some of it. The market always has a chance to come back again. Maybe you can calm down for a moment, take a break, and then reevaluate the market. It is very important to be rational.

Are there any potential risks or catalysts in the market?
Scott: In this case, it's easy to experience a roller-coaster ride of market volatility. As you mentioned, some assets may disappear within a month or two. Some people do make life-changing money in a few days, such as the meme coin Peanut. But even a $2 billion currency could soon plummet. Therefore, your view is right, you should cash out in time, whether it is a meme coin or bitcoin, you need to gradually withdraw from part of the position. As you said, profit-taking will not lose money.

Dreamer: Are there any "black swan events" or potential catalysts that could disrupt the market? If you look back at the past few years, such as the FTX crash or other unforeseen events, are there any trends or entities that we need to be vigilant about? Under the new Trump administration, has the market cleared up these uncertainties and made it easier to develop?

Arthur: I think a lot of them have been cleaned up. Many people suffered heavy losses in the FTX, Genesis, Three Arrows and Luna events. So, Bitcoin may now rise to $10 0,000 (that may be the price when you post this interview). But in the long run, when traditional financial funds see the price of cryptocurrencies rising, they will want to get involved, such as through venture capital.

A lot of venture capital firms raise a lot of money, and similar to the last cycle, they need to find big companies or important projects to invest in. In the early stage of the market, these funds are usually properly allocated and have a very good use. But as the bull market deepens, money could flow to some "hot areas" because investors have to invest in order to get a return. In this case, it is possible to see some business models based on the assumption of rising prices, leading to risk accumulation, and ultimately the market imbalance.

I don't know exactly which sector this will happen, but we have not yet reached the "overheating" stage. Especially when the traditional financial capital enters, overinvestment may appear in some areas, which is where investors need to be vigilant, so as not to "shuffle" when the market price is out of touch with the actual situation.

Dreamer: Yes, when I hear from you, I think that when people have a lot of successful transactions, they become bored and are eager to experience the feeling of making a quick profit again. There are a number of bitcoin second-layer agreements that have announced revenue plans, but where will they come from? We don't want to repeat the mistakes of the past commitment of high returns without a real foundation. Others may look for more trends to pursue big gains, and the risks will gradually increase. So, for those who have experienced the last bull market, I hope they can learn the lessons, and for the new people, I hope they can learn from the experience of others.

A talk about skiing
The interview was very wonderful. We are very grateful for your time. There is an IFC event tonight —— a credit match, don't know if you and others have time to participate. This is a global event, and we really hope to have the opportunity to invite you to participate in the future. I'm sure you will like this kind of event, like the influential people in the encryption field of competitions and events. Now I conclude the interview by giving the microphone to Scott.
Scott: Yes, we appreciate very much for your time to sit down with us to answer these questions. It would be nice to see you at the IFC. The last easy question: What do you do when you don't do something related to cryptocurrencies? What are your hobbies? How would you relax or quit these jobs? For example, are you a food lover? Will you go to find a new restaurant? Or is there any other way to keep you motivated?

Arthur: I like skiing very much. So I spend three to four months a year in the mountains, immersed in the snow. During the skiing season, I ski for eight hours a day. I do almost nothing but exercising and enjoying the outdoors. It makes me feel very happy.

Scott: What is your favorite skiing place?
Arthur: Niseko in Japan. Their pink snow is excellent, dry and light. It snows from January to February, and it's amazing.

Scott: So you are preparing for it right now? Adjusting the status?

Arthur: Yes, I'm preparing for skiing. But the only drawback in Japan is that the slopes are not steep enough to avoid the very dramatic steep slopes.

Dreamer: Ski resorts in Salt Lake City will have a lake effect. I live in Singapore, but previously in the US and often go skiing, but I'm a snowboarder.

Scott: So am I! Although I still ski, I prefer skis. Some places are suitable for snowis.

Dreamer: Yes, some places are very suitable. You also don't have snowboarders "trampling" on your tracks on the ski track.

Scott: This is really great! I haven't slipped for several years, but it's a hobby I've always wanted to regain. I am from the Northeast, grew up in New Jersey and New York, and can easily ski in Vermont. But I've lived in Houston for the last ten years, so it's not so convenient to get skiing without a few hours' drive.

Scott: I hope you have fun in the next time. I really want to go to Japan to experience the fun of skiing, but I had not thought there were such great skiing conditions there. Be sure to try it later.

Bitcoin's year-end and 2025 price forecasts
Scott: By the way, ask me a specific question. What do you think bitcoin will cost at the end of this year and at this time of next year?

Arthur: I think bitcoin will reach $10 0,000 by the end of this year, and by the end of 2025, it could reach $25 0,000.

Scott: Yes, this is the first time Alpha First forecasts: Bitcoin will reach $10 0,000 by the end of the year and $25 0,000 in a year. Maybe we have a chance to go to DevCon and other activities next year to test this prediction again. I hope it will not only be 25 0,000, but higher.