With the arrival of 2025, we will summarize the past and look forward to the future between the old and the new.

Review encryption industry in the past time, we can find an interesting phenomenon, that is every four years there is a "fake season", in this period, you will find that everything in the industry, probably you will hear you that drinking uncle also bought what animal expression package and made a fortune, even in the state of drunk to complete the operation.

By 2025, the real copycat season is not yet fully coming. While no one can predict how crazy the season will be, I want to remind you that the Altcoins market is usually out of control, and may also end suddenly. In a crash, the decline may not only be-99. [] 99%, or even a complete crash.

But until then, everyone was immersed in an atmosphere of prosperity and entertainment. So, let's review the past copycat season and see how they have worked, and can we learn some valuable lessons from it?

01,2012-2013 copycat season: An early fanatical investor, worth up to $15 billion

We know that the people who blindly follow the market are likely to appear again. This happened in 2013, and it became very interesting.

During the "copycat season" of 2013, bitcoin was still in its early stages of development, with a total market capitalization of only about $1 billion, while a whale deal was only about $100,000. At the time, CEX Mt. [] Gox was still in operation, and investors were mostly those who often appeared in the Magic card transactions (against the background of the Mt. [] Gox incident).

At the time, ideas were proposed for improving the speed of bitcoin transactions, arguing that transactions could be accelerated by reducing block time, which was then seen as an innovation of far-reaching significance.

Litecoin (Litecoin): It still exists today, and the whole idea (proposed by Charlie Lee) is to reduce the block time from 10 minutes in Bitcoin to 2. [] 5 minutes.

The price of Litecoin rose from about 10 cents to $48, or about 47,900%, with another surge in 2017, and then Charlie Lee sold all its positions at the top, claiming that "the Bitcoin network is good without him" (everyone knows what it means for a founder to sell 100% of his holdings).

Namecoin: This is a Bitcoin fork coin, designed to create a decentralized network domain name (similar to ENS through ". The concept of the  eth " extension). Its price once soared to about $13, but soon fell to a low point. From the lowest point to the highest point, its price has increased by about 30 times. In fact, it still exists today and is currently trading at close to $1.

Peercoin (PPC): This is one of the earliest proven equity (Proof-of-Take) Token (this mechanism is now used to ensure the safety of ETH), and has experienced two big gains. The first was in 2013, the other in 2017 when the ETH 1CO frenzy erupted. Its price briefly soared to about $7, up 60-70 times. Naturally, it didn't get mainstream adoption and eventually fell to $0. [] 42.(But the next conclusion is that nothing else on the market, except for a pure Ponzi scheme like, Bitconnect or LUNA.）

Tide: Bitcoin eventually reached $1,200, and these cryptocurrencies rose amid increased interest in crypto. Any project posted on BitcoinTalk can rise quickly by speculation alone. The closest thing to this today may be a Memecoin promoted by a celebrity or a Memecoin named after a celebrity.

Mt. [] Gox crash: When Mt. [] Gox crashed, the carnival party ended. The crash was caused by a major hacking attack that plunged the price of bitcoin, down about 85-90% (depending on what you think of the bottom), while Altcoins fell more than 99%.

02.2017 Shanzhai season: 1CO frenzy and the rise of Ethereum, with a market value of up to $800 billion

During the bear market that followed, many interesting events occurred. Ethereum was born as a smart contract platform designed to create a programmable currency. This is a real innovation because it allows people to not only transfer Token, but also create smart contracts, changing the game.

Like many things in the cryptocurrency space, Ethereum comes with some common risks. Ethereum's DAO (decentralized autonomous organization) was hacked and lost more than $100 million, eventually leading to the blockchain fork into two ETH and ETC chains. So far, some people still think that the fork decision at that time was wrong, but we do not intend to discuss this today, just simply review this period of history.

Around 2016, people realized that a new Token could be released on the Ethereum blockchain, which spawned the first Token release (1CO). In 1CO, the project party sells Token directly to investors. In 2017, the 1CO frenzy officially broke out, and many fraud projects you can think of are emerging at this time.

Ethereum (ETH): For ETH to issue these Token products, the price of ETH soared from about $8 to $1,400 in January 2018, which was an almost unimaginable return at the time. Currently, ETH is trading at about $3,650.

Ripple (XRP): XRP is still seen as a "bank currency," and its theory is that Ripple will overnight replace the SWIFT (International Fund Clearing System), as the de facto financial standard. Although Ripple is centralized (though most people don't mind), it still attracts millions of dollars. Ripple has surged from about 1 cent to $3. [] 80 and is currently trading at $2. [] 41.

Strangely enough, XRP's investor base is still mainly retail investors. In the recent rally, you can see a similar phenomenon as —— XRP dominates TikTok, attracting a lot of discussion and even asking, " What if its market value reaches the level of Bitcoin? "The discussion of a" $4 trillion market cap " is somewhat bizarre.

Litecoin (Litecoin): As mentioned earlier, Litecoin rose again, its price as high as $360. Although Charlie Lee sold all of his litecoin, it still surged to $384 again in 2021!

EOS: EOS raised $4 billion through 1CO and calls itself the "Ethereum Killer." Its price soared as high as $22, but has never hit a new high.

NEO: Another self-described "Ethereum killer" project, called "China's Ethereum," when the price of NEO rose from $0. [] 20 to $200, achieving a 1,000-fold return.

Bitcoin Cash (Bitcoin Cash): Roger Ver was once a well-known figure in the Bitcoin industry, being involved in the big block debate and supporting Bitcoin Cash. At block 478,559 in August 2017, users holding one Bitcoin will get a Bitcoin Cash. The price of Bitcoin Cash soared to about $3,800, but has since faded from view.

Other Ethereum killers: During this time, some other Token companies were also billed as "Ethereum killers" (ADA, Tron, etc.). If a Token has a "white paper", it seems to drive a 10-fold or 100-fold price jump. Other Tokens, such as Filecoin and Tezos, were also coming online during this period.

Income scam: If you think BlockFi, LUNA, Celsius and Voyager are the first revenue scam, you're wrong! In fact, the first massive profit Ponzi scheme was Bitconnect, and many people lost millions of dollars for it.

Regulators intervene: Like the 2021 cycle, their involvement and the outbreak of Ponzi schemes have once again devastated the industry. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began to pursue projects like EOS, and the market experienced a solid 85% correction, with the price of bitcoin falling to about $3,500 by March 2020.

During that period, most Tokens were just scams, so the Altcoin market experienced an almost-99. [] 999999% crash. At that time, if your Token appeared in a Super Bowl AD, its price could rise five times in an instant. For example, VIBE is a typical example.

The price of VIBE soared from $0. [] 04 to more than $2, but its total market value eventually fell to just $262.

03,2021: DeFi, NFT and Memecoin, market value of up to $3 trillion

In 2021, for well-known reasons, everyone works at home, staring at computers and mobile phones. The U. S. government has printed $10 trillion in currency, which is just the U. S. government spending.

The DeFi project drives liquidity mining, NFT made JPEG images mainstream (for millions of dollars), and Memecoin's valuation at ridiculous levels. Bitcoin exceeded $69,000, ETH reached $4,800, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies exceeded $3 trillion in November 2021.

Dogecoin: It was just a joke at first, but with Elon Musk's interest in the coin, its price began to rise parabolic, becoming a hot topic on the forum platform Reddit. Today, it is almost Elon's meme, representing the government efficiency department. Prices have soared from about 0. [] 5 cents to 74 cents, up about 15,000%.

Solana: Known as the next "Ethereum killer", it has attracted a lot of attention with its fast transaction speed and low cost. All this is mainly promoted by SBF (now in prison). Prices have soared from $1 to about $260, up 26,000%.

Shiba Inu: Imic dog money, produced a large number of millionaires. At an almost zero market value, it rose by 500,000%.

DeFi Token: AAVE, UNI, SUSHI, YFI and other DeFi Token increased by 10 times to 50 times, and decentralized financial (DeFi) locked-up funds (TVL) exceeded hundreds of billions of dollars. Today, many DeFi projects have even higher TVL than then!

NFTs：

CryptoPunks: Sold for millions of dollars, and the cheapest CryptoPunk costs more than 100 ETH.

The boring ape Yacht Club (BAYC): It has become a cultural phenomenon, and the lowest price has reached incredible levels.

Airdrop Crazy: For regular users of some projects, they just need to have a $100 one.  eth domain, for $40,000 Airdrop. You can even earn 2% in a day or a week by crossing a bridge (doing certain operations). NFT projects like BAYC also Airdrop a lot of other series of highly valued NFT, and the entire Airdrop costs billions of dollars.

Even crazier... Almost all Token are going up, with Token like SAFEMOON being touted by Dave Portnoy and others. Celebrities such as Snoop Dogg and Paris Hilton are also representing various projects. Tom Brady and Stephen Curry are promoting cryptocurrency exchanges. Even the defunct FTX has paid for the naming rights for the Miami Heat. FTX (now closed) has even bought the naming rights for the NBA's Miami Heat.

Ponzi scheme: A lot of Ponzi schemes emerge. Although some people accused us of these scams, in fact we were not involved. Fortunately, many people have managed to avoid large losses. It is never wise to invest in these products and entrust your assets to others.

Death spiral: As liquidity begins to dry up (the previous funding for these projects no longer appears), we see the collapse of the Ponzi scheme. In addition, FTX closed down for stealing user funds, and then the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) again moved to regulate. A variety of large-scale scams and leek cutting incidents, eventually led to the crypto industry entry and exit into a strict regulatory period.

04. Key lessons

1) Timely profits: The market is changing quickly, and you are likely to feel greed. If you find yourself saying, "I wish I could buy twice the other Token," you should probably sell half of your position and be content to make a profit. It doesn't matter to sell bitcoin, Ethereum or stablecoin. The point is not to be greedy.

2) The hype cycle is repetitive: each round of the season has a narrative theme: Bitcoin fork, 1CO, DeFi, NFT or Memecoin. If you find a theme, it's best to stick to it, because the knowledge you accumulate in the field tends to disappear quickly at the end of the cycle. Instead of jumping around, focus on a certain field and take the final victory.

3) Risk management is critical: the benefits are very significant, but everyone is different. You are different from me, so my neighbors are different. Make a right plan for yourself and stick to it. Don't adjust your goals because someone with $100,000 says "$10 million is not enough for retirement."

4) Survivals will thrive: Altcoins Both come and go, but Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate each cycle. If a project has been around for so long, the risk of zero is relatively low. If Solana could find a practical application beyond Pump. [] fun in 2025, it might be close to that level.

Did we learn anything from the Ponzi scheme? Not really. From what we see, people still don't understand "Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins (not your private key, is not your currency") the concept, you can buy encryption stock in brokerage companies or other encryption leverage assets investment, but to understand, if you hold these stocks or encryption currency ETF, you don't actually have any encryption currency. You will never know how these companies or projects will deal with the assets you invest in.

In bull markets, we are often criticised for not participating in the hype of the latest Memecoin. Although these speculation seem to be hot now, if you look closely, you will find that those who stick to their strategy and keep calm have gradually accumulated.

In contrast, speculators who only want to get rich quickly through "10 times earnings" may get the attention of the market in the short term, but their funds and strategies are far from those of anonymous investors who invest and accumulate wealth every month. These big players usually have a more solid financial foundation and a clearer long-term plan. In the end, the market's performance and the data will prove that what strategy is the key to success.