Weekly market insight: Bitcoin sprint to a new 100,000 high path
2024-12-03 14:42

Hot news
Bitcoin fell 0. [] 88% last week, falling back to nearly $91,000. Chain data shows that most of the addresses that achieve profits are long-term holders, especially the cumulative BTC addresses from 2022 to 2023. Meanwhile, the net outflow of the Bitcoin ETF reached $1 [] $380.7 billion. Still, the encrypted fear and greed index remains above 70.


December could be a key month for bitcoin to reach the $100,000 milestone. Historically, similar to the halving year in 2016 and 2020, bitcoin rose by 30. [] 8% and 46. [] 92% in December, respectively. This historical data provides hope for market performance this year.


Macro outlook
The FOMC minutes released last week show that the pace of future rate cuts will be gradual. Participants were not sure about the level of neutral rates, but still believed that inflation would rise to 2%, where inflation would not come from wages. The market raised the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December from 50. [] 9% to 67. [] 1%.


US orders for durable goods rose 0. [] 2% in October, below expectations of 0. [] 5%. The second estimate of Q3GDP in the US is 2. [] 8%, in line with expectations. Core personal consumption spending increased by 0. [] 3% month-on-month in October, also within the market estimates. Personal consumption expenditure prices rose 2. [] 3% year on year in October, in line with expectations. Personal income rose 0. [] 6% in October, higher than the forecast of 0. [] 3%. Personal spending rose 0. [] 4% in October, also slightly higher than expectations of 0. [] 3%.


The upcoming economic calendar includes:
Monday, December 211:00 PM: US ISM November Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, December 3,11:00 PM: US October JOLTs jobs vacant
Wednesday, December 4,11:00 PM: US November ISM Services PMI
Thursday, December 5,2:45 a. m.: Jerome Powell Speaking at the New York Times DealBook Summit
Friday, Dec 6,9:30 pm: U. S. nonfarm and unemployment data for November
Friday, Dec 611:00 PM: The University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Confidence Index for December


A quick review of the cryptocurrency market
MicroStrategy Another 55,500 BTC were purchased, with a total holding of 386,700 BTC. MARA also purchased an additional 703 BTCs, with a total holding capacity of 6,474 BTCs.
WisdomTree Application for XRP ETF in Delaware.
Valour Launch of DOGE ETP in the Spotlight stock market in Sweden.
21Shares Four new ETPs were added to the European exchange Amsterdam and Paris markets, including RNDR, PYTH, ONDO and NEAR.
The US court ruled that OFAC (Office of Foreign Asset Control) sanctions against the Tornado Cash exceeded its scope.


Layer 1 and layer 2 public chains
Ripple Announced a partnership with Archax to introduce tokized money market funds into XRP Ledger.
Movement Labs Announced integration with Celestia, allowing the Move Chain to release Blob data to Celestia. In addition, Movement has launched MOVE tokens as collateral collateral and Gas tokens for its second-tier network. 50% of the tokens are allocated to ecosystems, communities, and initial claimants.
Supra, a multi-virtual machine tier network, supports EVM and MoveVM, with SVM and CosmWasm coming soon.
Sonic Launch of Blaze test network 2. [] 0, the current final confirmation time is about 840 milliseconds.
Dapps
Hyperliquid Launch HYPE tokens, with 31% allocated to initial airdrops and 38. [] 89% for future releases and rewards. The token will be used as HyperBFT collateral and Gas token. HYPE tokens have an FDV just below $10 billion, with the platform hitting new highs in open interest, trading volume, daily subscriber additions and daily inflows.
Hyperlane Working with Velodrome Finance to launch Superlane, an interoperability layer that supports license-free cross-chain solutions for Optimism Superchain.
EtherVista Launching Etherfun on Base, the fees generated by the network will be used to repurchase and destroy the VISTA tokens.
Pendle At Base, the first assets launched include cbETH and BTC.
1inch Launch Fusion + to provide intent-based cross-chain token exchange function for all users.
Bons (ai) has launched an on-chain agent platform that creates agents that can trade, connect, and evolve through cue-based learning. These agents can track social trends, identify tokens, execute transactions, and create meme coins.


Sun Yuchen has invested $30 million in World Liberty Financial, making him the largest investor in the platform.
Liquity The V2 version was launched on the test website. V2 or BOLD has user-set interest rates, native stablecoin gains, multiple collateral support, and actual earnings for the LQTY pledge.
Binance After announcing the removal of the REN, the Dark Pool protocol team tweeted that its v2 version was coming soon.
Flashbot Launch BuiderNet, a decentralized Ethereum block building network that runs on Trusted Execution environments (TEEs) and shares MEV and Gas fees with users.
Elixir The DeUSD (the DeFi version of the BUIDL Fund) announced Curve as the main liquidity center.
Clanker, the platform that launched the token through Farcaster posts, announced a 40% fee share with users who created the token. The platform also created the ANON token, a token previously purchased by Vitalik to post anonymous posts in Farcaster. The  team plans to launch Anonfun, which allows users to create tokens anonymously through two protocol features.
Helium Passed the HIP-138 proposal, simplified the Helium ecosystem, phased out the IOT and MOBILE tokens, and directly rewarded all participants with the HNT.


Governance / Project Update
Chain abstraction network Particle Network is expected to launch an on-chain trading feature on December 3.
Jupiter The first round of Jupuary voting was completed, with 58% of the voters supporting the baseline plan. However, the team hopes to achieve a 70% super-majority in this proposal. A second round of voting is expected this week.
Kaia announced that Mini Dapps on LINE will launch in January 2025, and Dapp Portal SDK is expected to launch in December 2024.
Farcaster Announced the launch of Frames v2 for full-screen apps, browser rendering, on-chain transaction requests, and a better user experience. More features are expected to launch this week, with a full and stable version expected to launch in the first quarter of 2025.
Polkadot 2. [] 0, which will be launched in the first quarter of 2025, includes asynchronous packaging (accelerated block generation), flexible core time (optimizing verifier resources), and elastic expansion (on-demand increase in network capacity).
The TON network launched tgBTC, which is currently in the test network stage, and the main network line is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2025.
GMX proposes to increase the repurchase and allocation ratio from 27% to 90%.
Berachain The Foundation proposes a friendly fork of Morpho Blue.
Instadapp Proposal to use 5% of the total INST supply to establish a protocol-owned liquidity pool.
Synthetix Proacquiring TLX as part of its strategy to launch the "Synthetix Vaults" line of products.
Sonic Co-founder Andre Cronje hinted at the launch of a "true" AMM (or Solidly v2) aimed to handle stablecoins, volatile asset pairs, and highly related volatile asset pairs.


Coin unlock
The SUI tokens will be unlocked on December 3, providing 2. [] 87% of the total token supply.
The JTO tokens will be unlocked on December 7th, providing 103. [] 9% of the total token supply.
The IO tokens will be unlocked on December 11, providing 2. [] 88% of the total token supply.
The APT tokens will be unlocked on December 12, with 2. [] 11% of the total token supply.
The STRK tokens will be unlocked on December 15, providing 2. [] 84% of the total token supply.
The ARB tokens will be unlocked on December 16, providing 2. [] 26% of the total token supply.
The APE tokens will be unlocked on December 17, providing 2. [] 16% of the total token supply.